Concerning a Conditioned Model

After the shock with regard to supply during the pandemic, another has arrived – also concerning supply, by the way –, with the Ukrainian war. 

Raw materials and intermediate supplies have become scarce, value chains are being jeopardised, inflation is reaching levels that we have not known for thirty years and a very strong component of uncertainty has raised its head again. 

In this context, it is not possible to implement a stable economic policy model, based on unquestionable assumptions, which would allow us to positively influence the psychological component of investment. 

We can say, however, that an attempt will be made, once again, to reconcile containing the budget deficit with some stimuli to the disposable income of families, updating, for example, personal income tax brackets. 

It can also be said that an attempt will be made to introduce new mechanisms to encourage investment in companies, with a marginal reduction, in certain situations, of corporate income tax. 

It will be feasible to expect some boost to investment in infrastructure, health and the digital economy, through the Recovery and Resilience Plan. 

But we are a long way from being able to guarantee a high GDP growth rate, an increase in the average wage, in real terms, or even wages practised in the national labour market keeping up with the inflation rate. 

And all this is clear for one simple reason: we do not know how long the conflict in Ukraine will last, nor how intense it will become, especially if it becomes more widespread. 

And, in all honesty, if the conflict becomes more widespread, the resulting costs for the world economy in general and the European economy in particular will be very high. 

We live in a transitory and conditioned model, according to which sacrifices must be made. 

But these sacrifices are justified when democracy and freedom are at stake. 

Nothing more, nothing less...